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Lightning occurring with less than 2.5 mm of rainfall—typically referred to as ‘dry lightning’—is a major source of wildfire ignition in central and northern California. Despite being rare, dry lightning outbreaks have resulted in destructive fires in this region due to the intersection of dense, dry vegetation and a large population living adjacent to fire-prone lands. Since thunderstorms are much less common in this region relative to the interior West, the climatology and drivers of dry lightning have not been widely investigated in central and northern California. Using daily gridded lightning and precipitation observations (1987–2020) in combination with atmospheric reanalyses, we characterize the climatology of dry lightning and the associated meteorological conditions during the warm season (May–October) when wildfire risk is highest. Across the domain, nearly half (∼46%) of all cloud-to-ground lightning flashes occurred as dry lightning during the study period. We find that higher elevations (>2000 m) receive more dry lightning compared to lower elevations (<1000 m) with activity concentrated in July-August. Although local meteorological conditions show substantial spatial variation, we find regionwide enhancements in mid-tropospheric moisture and instability on dry lightning days relative to background climatology. Additionally, surface temperatures, lower-tropospheric dryness, and mid-tropospheric instability are increased across the region on dry versus wet lightning days. We also identify widespread dry lightning outbreaks in the historical record, quantify their seasonality and spatial extent, and analyze associated large-scale atmospheric patterns. Three of these four atmospheric patterns are characterized by different configurations of ridging over the continental interior and offshore troughing. Understanding the meteorology of dry lightning across this region can inform forecasting of possible wildfire ignitions and is relevant for assessing changes in dry lightning and wildfire risk in climate projections.

 

Cloud‐to‐ground lightning with minimal rainfall (“dry” lightning) is a major wildfire ignition source in the western United States (WUS). Although dry lightning is commonly defined as occurring with <2.5 mm of daily‐accumulated precipitation, a rigorous quantification of precipitation amounts concurrent with lightning‐ignited wildfires (LIWs) is lacking. We combine wildfire, lightning and precipitation data sets to quantify these ignition precipitation amounts across ecoprovinces of the WUS. The median precipitation for all LIWs is 2.8 mm but varies with vegetation and fire characteristics. “Holdover” fires not detected until 2–5 days following ignition occur with significantly higher precipitation (5.1 mm) compared to fires detected promptly after ignition (2.5 mm), and with cooler and wetter environmental conditions. Further, there is substantial variation in precipitation associated with promptly‐detected (1.7–4.6 mm) and holdover (3.0–7.7 mm) fires across ecoprovinces. Consequently, the widely‐used 2.5 mm threshold does not fully capture lightning ignition risk and incorporating ecoprovince‐specific precipitation amounts would better inform WUS wildfire prediction and management.

 

Abstract Fire-generated tornadic vortices (FGTVs) linked to deep pyroconvection, including pyrocumulonimbi (pyroCbs), are a potentially deadly, yet poorly understood, wildfire hazard. In this study we use radar and satellite observations to examine three FGTV cases during high-impact wildfires during the 2020 fire season in California. We establish that these FGTVs each exhibit tornado-strength anticyclonic rotation, with rotational velocity as strong as 30 m s −1 (60 kt), vortex depths of up to 4.9 km AGL, and pyroCb plume tops as high as 16 km MSL. These data suggest similarities to EF2+ strength tornadoes. Volumetric renderings of vortex and plume morphology reveal two types of vortices: embedded vortices anchored to the fire and residing within high-reflectivity convective columns and shedding vortices that detach from the fire and move downstream. Time-averaged radar data further show that each case exhibits fire-generated mesoscale flow perturbations characterized by flow splitting around the fire’s updraft and pronounced flow reversal in the updraft’s lee. All the FGTVs occur during deep pyroconvection, including pyroCb, suggesting an important role of both fire and cloud processes. The commonalities in plume and vortex morphology provide the basis for a conceptual model describing when, where, and why these FGTVs form. 

The increasing complexity and impacts of fire seasons in the United States have prompted efforts to improve early warning systems for wildland fire management. Outlooks of potential fire activity at lead‐times of several weeks can help in wildland fire resource allocation as well as complement short‐term meteorological forecasts for ongoing fire events. Here, we describe an experimental system for developing downscaled ensemble‐based subseasonal forecasts for the contiguous US using NCEP's operational Climate Forecast System version 2 model. These forecasts are used to calculate forecasted fire danger indices from the United States (US) National Fire Danger Rating System in addition to forecasts of evaporative demand. We further illustrate the skill of subseasonal forecasts on weekly timescales using hindcasts from 2011 to 2021. Results show that while forecast skill degrades with time, statistically significant week 3 correlative skill was found for 76% and 30% of the contiguous US for Energy Release Component and evaporative demand, respectively. These results highlight the potential value of experimental subseasonal forecasts in complementing existing information streams in weekly‐to‐monthly fire business decision making for suppression‐based decisions and geographic reallocation of resources during the fire season, as well for proactive fire management actions outside of the core fire season.

 

Downslope winds are mesoscale mountain meteorological phenomena that contribute to localized temperature extremes and contribute to numerous societal and environmental impacts. Whereas previous studies have examined local downslope winds, no known efforts have attempted to identify and characterize meso‐ to synoptic‐scale downslope winds globally using a common approach. We use a conceptual model for downslope winds that employs cross‐barrier wind speed, near‐mountain top static stability, and downward vertical velocity using thresholds guided by a chronology of local downslope winds and meta‐analysis of downslope wind case studies. This approach was applied to ERA‐5 reanalysis during 1979–2018 to develop a global atlas of downslope winds. Downslope winds adhered to distinct geographic and seasonal patterns, with peak occurrence in north–south oriented midlatitude mountains in the winter hemisphere associated with strong cross‐mountain winds and stability. However, we identify numerous locations from the tropics to the high‐latitudes where downslope winds occur at least 60 days a year as a byproduct of the general circulation and local‐scale circulation interacting with topography. The four‐decade‐long data set is also used to examine statistical relationships between the occurrence of downslope winds and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation as well as long‐term trends in downslope wind occurrence.